What’s Going on in the 2024 Election? Here’s the Latest.
Where does the presidential race stand today?
There have been some exciting developments in the 2024 election that I’d like to discuss, but I’m not quite ready for the next edition of my 2024 election projections, Margolis Maps 2024, as I'm waiting for some more polling to come in first.
Consider this an interim update before my next election projection. For newer subscribers who aren’t familiar, Margolis Maps 2024 is an exclusive series for paid subscribers that offers a more detailed state-by-state analysis. You can read the first edition from January, but all others require an upgraded subscription. If you’re a free subscriber and are interested in my more detailed analyses of the election—as well as access to other paid subscriber exclusives and my full archives—consider clicking the button below and updating your subscription at a discount.
If you’re following election coverage this year, you'll likely have heard there's been a recent shift in polling—there's no use in denying that. In January, Trump previously held a lead as substantial as 4.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average. His advantage has been reduced to a mere two-tenths of a point.
So what? If we look back at 2020, Biden maintained a consistent and comfortable lead in national polling.
As you can see, not once during the 2020 campaign did Trump ever lead Biden in the RCP average. His final RCP average was +7.2 points over Trump, and his actual performance was +4.5. Yet, his ultimate victory hinged precariously on narrow margins in pivotal states—margins that relied entirely on the prevalence of mail-in voting thanks to the COVID pandemic.
If we assume that Trump will once again (as he did in 2016 and 2020) outperform the polls, it’s easy to see that Biden would need a roughly 5-point lead in the national popular vote to win the Electoral College.
So, don’t sweat the tightening of the national polls. They're less instructive than battleground state polling, which continues to paint a favorable picture for Trump's electoral prospects.
The latest polling data from Echelon Insights paints a favorable picture for Trump in these crucial states. Trump leads by significant margins in critical battlegrounds, including Georgia (+10), Nevada (+7), Pennsylvania (+4), Michigan (+6), and Arizona (+6). Biden only leads in Wisconsin by a single point.
I’ll be the first to tell you not to base the state of the race on just one poll, so let's compare this poll to the latest Wall Street Journal poll of the battleground states. In that survey, Trump leads in Georgia (+1), Nevada (+4), Pennsylvania (+3), Michigan (+3), and Arizona (+5), and is tied with Biden in Wisconsin.
These polls are consistent with battleground state polling over recent months. While there remains ample time for dynamics to shift, Trump is clearly the frontrunner.
Adding to Joe Biden’s problems is how he’s lost support from crucial Democratic constituencies.
“More black men said they plan to back Donald Trump this fall, according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll of seven swing states,” the Wall Street Journal reported last week. “While most black men said they intend to support Biden, some 30% of them in the poll said they were either definitely or probably going to vote for the former Republican president. There isn’t comparable WSJ swing-state polling from 2020, but Trump received votes from 12% of black men nationwide that year, as recorded by AP VoteCast, a large poll of the electorate.”
Given Biden's narrow victories in many battleground states in 2020, even a slight shift in black support toward Trump could pose a considerable challenge to Biden's ability to hold onto these states in 2024.
Throughout 2016, I, like many, was firmly convinced that Trump stood little chance of winning. The polls confirmed this belief. However, as we witnessed, those predictions were off the mark. The 2020 election was a particularly unique scenario in that COVID-19 likely determined the outcome and widespread mail-in voting—which heavily tipped the scales toward Biden and still only delivered the slimmest of margins of victory for him in a few select states.
I remain convinced that Donald Trump’s standing in the 2024 election is stronger than that of 2020 and 2016.