Are the Polls and Forecasters Wrong Again?

While many election forecasters are optimistic about Kamala Harris’s chances for winning in November, recent polling suggests a much more favorable situation for Donald Trump than they would have us believe.

Earlier this month, historian Allan Lichtman updated his "Keys to the White House" model, predicting Harris would win. However, as I proved at the time, a more objective assessment of the key actually indicates a likely Trump victory.

Similarly, Thomas Miller, a data scientist from Northwestern University, claims that Kamala is on track to win a landslide victory. He currently projects she will secure 55% of the popular vote.

This prediction raises serious red flags.

Think about it. Even Barack Obama, a highly inspirational figure (to some, anyway), won only 52.9% of the national popular vote in 2008. If Kamala won 55% of the national popular vote, it would give her a landslide victory closer to Ronald Reagan’s in 1988, when she won 58.8% of the national popular vote.

That’s how absurd Miller's prediction is.

Miller's predictions are further undermined by the fundamentals of this race, which clearly favor Donald Trump. Voters overwhelmingly give him higher ratings on handling the economy, immigration and crime—the key issues that are motivating voters.

But, there are other problems with Miller’s forecast. Trump gaining traction among traditionally Democratic constituencies, such as black and Hispanic voters. Meanwhile, Harris's net favorability among independents sits at a dismal -25 points, with 60% viewing her unfavorably. She even failed to secure the endorsement of the Teamsters, one of the largest unions in the country that has typically backed the Democratic presidential candidate. In an economy this bad, the incumbent party isn’t going to get 55% of the national popular vote.

But there are other warning signs for Kamala, as polling data has emerged from traditionally blue states showing her lead is much closer than anticipated.

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In Minnesota, her margin is much slimmer than it should be, and Michigan isn’t looking secure for her either. Virginia, once considered a blue stronghold, is now statistically tied between Harris and Trump, according to a new poll from the University of Mary Washington. Harris holds just 47% compared to Trump’s 46%, a situation that suggests Virginia should be treated as a swing state once again.

This tightening race contradicts the narrative that Harris is poised for a landslide. The reality is stark: if Virginia, Michigan, and Minnesota are all too close for comfort, Trump must be performing better in other battleground states than current forecasts indicate. Heck, in New York, recent polling shows Kamala running roughly ten points behind Joe Biden’s margin in 2020. Trump also has a higher approval rating in the state than its Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul.

These shifts don’t happen in a vacuum. They likely signal a broader national trend.

In short, Harris's campaign is not a blueprint for a landslide victory. While I’m not ruling out the possibility that she can win, the notion that she could secure 55% of the national popular vote is absurd. Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama won their victories due to their ability to communicate and inspire the people who voted for them. Kamala doesn’t share those qualities. Not by a long shot.

So, take my word for it: ignore the election forecasters who rely on their past successes to push the narrative that this race is a done deal for Kamala. And ignore the polls because some have Trump up, others have Kamala up. We have every reason to believe that this election will be close. If the left wants to believe they have this locked, let them. But we need to act as though we’re slightly behind and get the vote out.