The Margolis Manifesto

The Margolis Manifesto

Are the Polls and Forecasters Wrong Again?

Matt Margolis's avatar
Matt Margolis
Sep 20, 2024
∙ Paid
Free Stickers with I voted inscription and flag of USA Stock Photo

While many election forecasters are optimistic about Kamala Harris’s chances for winning in November, recent polling suggests a much more favorable situation for Donald Trump than they would have us believe.

Earlier this month, historian Allan Lichtman updated his "Keys to the White House" model, predicting Harris would win. However, as I proved at the …

User's avatar

Continue reading this post for free, courtesy of Matt Margolis.

Or purchase a paid subscription.
© 2026 Matt Margolis · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture