Reassessing Allan Lichtman’s 'Keys to the White House’ for 2024
Reassessing Allan Lichtman’s 'Keys to the White House’ for 2024
In February, historian Allan Lichtman predicted that Joe Biden would win the 2024 presidential election against Trump. Lichtman, who has a near-perfect record using his infamous "Keys to the White House" system, bases his predictions on 13 true or false indicators. At that time, he gave Biden an edge, with Biden holding five keys and Trump holding three, leaving five undecided.
After reviewing Lichtman’s 13 keys, I concluded that Trump was actually favored to win.
Recently, Lichtman updated his prediction now that Kamala Harris is on the top of the ticket. He now forecasts a victory for Kamala Harris over Trump.
Considering how wrong he was back in February, I decided to do my own re-assessment of the keys.
Key 1: Midterm gains
Does the incumbent party currently hold more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the last midterm elections? No, it doesn’t. The Republican Party has a slim majority.
Lichtman’s Rating: False.
My rating: False.
Key 2: No primary contest
Democrats quickly rallied behind Kamala Harris after Joe Biden dropped out, avoiding a divisive process for choosing Biden’s successor on the ticket.
Lichtman’s Rating: True.
My rating: True.
Key 3: Incumbent seeking re-election
This key automatically goes to the incumbent seeking reelection. Technically, Kamala Harris is not the incumbent president. While one could argue that given Biden’s situation, she’s the de facto president, technically, this key is false.
Lichtman’s Rating: False.
My rating: False.
Key 4: No third party
Is there no significant third-party candidate in this election? Not really. The closest thing that came to a significant third-party candidacy was Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but he dropped out and endorsed Trump.
Lichtman’s Rating: True.
My rating: True.
Key 5: Strong short-term economy
According to Wikipedia, this key is false “if the economy is, or is widely perceived to be, in recession during the election campaign.” during the election campaign. Recent polling shows that a strong majority of voters believe the economy is in recession. Lichtman says otherwise, but there’s no denying that voters are struggling in this economy due to historic inflation, and recent economic indicators suggest a recession is indeed on the horizon.
Lichtman’s Rating: True.
My rating: False.
Key 6: Strong long-term economy
This key is considered “true “when per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Technically, this is true, but that’s because of the pandemic. But I’ll give Lichtman the benefit of the doubt on this one.
Lichtman’s Rating: True.
My rating: True.
Key 7: Major policy change
Has the Biden-Harris administration enacted significant policy changes? Yes, it has. This point is awarded to Harris solely based on the fact that changes were made, without evaluating whether those changes have been beneficial. If the actual impact of the policies were considered, it would likely count against Harris.
Lichtman’s Rating: True.
My rating: True.
Key 8: No social unrest
Protests related to the Israel-Hamas conflict have been a significant issue this year, though the planned protests at the DNC didn’t escalate to the level of the 1968 DNC. However, defining “unrest” can be subjective. Lichtman rates this key as true, and I’ll agree with him on this point.
Lichtman’s Rating: True.
My rating: True.
Key 9: No scandal
Kamala Harris would get this key if the Biden-Harris administration were scandal-free, and that’s certainly not true. Lichtman doesn’t seem to think Biden has any major scandals yet. I guess he hasn’t been paying attention. Biden has had plenty of personal scandals—none of which Lichtman considered big enough to rate this key false when Biden was a candidate—but two huge scandals can be directly linked to Kamala Harris: the botched Afghanistan withdrawal and the border crisis. Harris has said she was the last person in the room with Biden when the decision was made to withdraw from Afghanistan. Harris is also the administration’s border czar, indisputably linking her to the border crisis.
Lichtman’s Rating: True
My rating: False.
Key 10: No foreign/military failure
This is an easy one. The defining moment of Biden’s presidency was the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan during his first year in office, which, as previously mentioned, Kamala Harris has boasted her direct involvement in. That event sent Biden’s approval ratings into negative territory for the first time, where they remain. Lichtman, however, argues that people have forgotten about it now. I’m afraid I have to disagree because polls show he never recovered from it.
Lichtman’s Rating: Likely False.
My rating: False.
Key 11: Major foreign/military success
Biden has yet to redeem himself on the world stage after the Afghanistan debacle. Biden’s approval ratings on his handling of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars are both underwater. The ongoing situation with Iran and the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan are also huge problems for him.
Lichtman’s Rating: Likely False.
My rating: False.
Key 12. Charismatic incumbent
This is clearly a subjective point. The only two candidates that have ever been deemed “charismatic” are Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama. Kamala may be more charismatic than Joe Biden, but even she doesn’t meet Lichtman’s standard, and considering she’s the most unpopular vice president in the history of polling, I don’t disagree.
Lichtman’s Rating: False.
My rating: False.
Key 13: Uncharismatic challenger
Is Trump “charismatic” in a way that gives him broad appeal? This is also a very subjective point. Lichtman claims that while Trump has strong appeal with certain voters, it’s a relatively small portion of the overall electorate. That may be true, but elections are increasingly being decided by tight margins in key states, where even a small, dedicated base can make a significant impact. However, sticking to Lichtman’s criteria, we’ll say this point doesn’t apply to Trump.
Lichtman’s Rating: True.
My rating: True.
Lichtman identifies eight keys favoring Kamala Harris, with three in Trump's favor and two more leaning toward Trump. However, using Lichtman’s methodology to project the election based on my evaluation of keys, Trump emerges as the likely winner. I see seven factors favoring Trump versus six for Harris, pointing to a predicted Trump victory at this stage.
I will continue to assess the state of the presidential election with my Margolis Maps 2024 series.
Margolis Maps 2024 is an exclusive feature reserved for paid subscribers. My inaugural projection from January is available to all subscribers so you can see what you can expect, but that will be the only projection available to preview, and you still have time to take advantage of a great offer to upgrade.