Will the Polls Be Right in 2024, or Are We Headed for Another Surprise?

What is going to happen on Election Day? The polls suggest Trump has the momentum right now, but do we really know that he’s going to emerge victorious? Like countless other pundits, I’ve obsessing over polls, political betting markets, and a slew of other indicators in an attempt to get a read on this election.

And like everyone else, I really don’t know what to think.

Frankly, the polls show good news for Trump right now.

Looking at the RealClearPolitics polling averages for October 20th during the 2024, 2020, and 2016 election cycles—some interesting trends emerge.

Kamala Harris in 2024 is trailing or neck-and-neck in key battlegrounds compared to Joe Biden’s commanding leads in 2020 and Hillary Clinton’s mixed performance in 2016.

Nationally, the race is virtually tied. This is a devastating position for Kamala to be in, considering Joe Biden’s 8.6-point lead at this time in 2020. In key battlegrounds, the story is even more concerning for Kamala Harris.

• In Wisconsin, the race is virtually tied, while Biden led by 6.3 points and Clinton by 6.5 in their respective cycles.

• Pennsylvania shows a similar picture, with Kamala down by 0.7 points, whereas Biden had a comfortable 3.8-point lead.

• In Arizona, Kamala is trailing by 1.6 points, while Biden was ahead by 3.1 and Clinton was 1.5 points.

What does this mean? Let’s take a deeper look at the numbers and see what we can see…