Democrats are acting like they’ve already won the midterms, and the elections in November are just a formality. I think they’re going to be disappointed when Republicans keep control of the chamber.
I don’t say that lightly. I have little patience for conservative influencers who wave away every bad poll as fake. Why? Because false hope sets people up for heartbreak and burns whatever credibility they had. I said repeatedly is 2024 that the polls showing Kamala Harris ahead were wrong, I had a specific reason: their crosstabs didn’t line up with their toplines.
For sure, holding the House is a tougher sell for Republicans this year, and I wouldn’t count on it. The Senate is another matter, and my confidence rests on how polls have actually performed in close Senate races.