Was I Wrong About The Debate?

Screenshot via Fox News Channel.

After Tuesday’s debate, I was sharply critical of Trump’s performance. However, in the days since, I’ve begun to question whether my initial assessment was too harsh. I still don't think he “won” the debate. But winning the debate isn’t the same as having a successful debate, and it looks like Trump may have been more successful at doing what he needed to do than was immediately clear.

For example, on Wednesday, I reported on a Reuters focus group of ten undecided voters before and after the debate. Six of them moved toward Trump, while only three leaned toward Harris, with one still unsure.

Sure, it was a small sample size, but it still signalled to me that undecided voters saw the debate very differently than I did. I’d been writing about the debate well before it happened, discussing what Trump needed to accomplish to make it a success, so when he didn’t do that, I was angry.

The Reuters focus group also found that Harris needs to offer more concrete policies to convince people to support her. Five voters specifically criticized Harris for being vague on key issues like improving the economy and tackling the high cost of living—two things that are at the top of most voters' minds.

This debate was a critical moment for Harris, and it looks like she missed the mark with those voters who count the most. Four of the six voters who shifted to Trump felt that Harris wasn’t offering anything substantially different from Biden, whom they blame for rising living costs.

And this wasn’t the only sign that undecideds weren’t moved by Harris in the debate. According to the New York Times, "Initial reactions from political analysts leaned toward Harris, who seemed to shake Trump with her sharp critiques." But not all voters, particularly the undecided ones who will likely tip this election, were convinced by Harris's showing.

While some undecideds admitted Harris came across as more presidential, they also noted that she failed to offer a clear contrast to Biden, which is what they’re hungry for. What they really wanted were specifics—and they didn’t get them.

The Reuters focus group wasn’t the only one that spelled trouble for Kamala. Over at PJ Media, I highlighted how undecided voters in various focus groups panned her performance.

But perhaps the most interesting thing since the debate that has made me think twice about my assessment of Trump’s performance was a Fox News focus group using dial monitors, which found independent voters overlapping with Republicans on key issues.

“The focus group comprised seven Democrats, five independents and five Republicans, and was represented by blue, yellow and red lines, respectively,” reports Fox News. “When Trump spoke of the rising crime at the hands of illegal immigrants, the yellow line monitoring the independent reaction rose drastically in Trump's favor, overlapping with the red Republican line.”

Lee Carter, pollster and president of Maslansky + Partners, was taken aback by the strong alignment between independent voters and Republicans on the issue.

"I was really, really surprised because the intensity of the independent support was there for Donald Trump and I didn't expect it," Carter said.

"Independents are tracking very much with Republicans. They're looking for a couple of things. They're looking for answers on immigration, they're looking for answers on the economy. They want to hear that things will get better for them and they also want change from what is happening right now," Carter continued. "One of the most important things they were looking for last night from Kamala Harris is how are you going to make it different?"

An independent voter from New York who joined a voter panel Wednesday told host Harris Faulkner, "You don't have to look any further than the five boroughs to see the impact of the migrant crisis."

"When asked directly by the moderators, Kamala didn't even make an effort to defend the administration's policies at all. She can't," he added. "It's indefensible, so she pivoted… but they totally rewrote all of Trump's immigration policies year one. I would've liked to have seen an explanation for the country as to why they did that."

Carter proceeded to highlight additional examples — including on fracking, abortion and the economy — where independents tracked with Republicans' reactions.

Faulkner said the dial results indicate the GOP "better pay attention" to non-affiliated voters.

"I think the independents are tracking this way with Trump's responses because it is obvious what's happening across the country in these cities," a GOP voter from New Jersey said. 

"Every single day we're seeing destruction… crime… every single day our safety is being compromised, and I think you can't hide from that, and I think it's becoming more and more obvious and something needs to change."

Independents tracked closely with Republicans when both Trump and Kamala were talking about the economy and inflation as well.

I encourage you to watch the entire focus group segment:

The bottom line is that while Kamala may have won on performance, Trump’s words resonated with them much, much more.

Did Trump win the debate? No. I’m still troubled by how easily Kamala Harris managed to bait him and how many opportunities he missed. While the moderators were certainly inadequate, their shortcomings wouldn’t have changed the fact that Trump’s performance fell short.

That said, the debate wasn’t the slam dunk for Kamala that they’re making it out to be. Trump appears to have accomplished the most important thing: resonating with undecided and independent voters.