Trump Was Always Going To Win
Throughout most of this election, I remained cautiously optimistic about a Trump victory. I will admit that I had some concern after Democrats experienced a surge of enthusiasm following Joe Biden’s withdrawal and Kamala Harris saw a bump in the polls, but even then, deep down, I always believed Trump would still win.
In fact, it still felt inevitable. Why? Because the fundamentals of the election were heavily stacked against her. Voters were deeply concerned about the economy, immigration, and crime—issues where Trump held an undeniable advantage. No Democrat would be able to win.
On Tuesday night, it was quickly clear that Donald Trump would achieve a decisive victory when we saw how he was overperforming in Florida—a state that counts its votes quickly.
And things just kept getting better as the night progressed.
Even across battleground states, he was exceeding expectations, making it look extremely likely he was going to outperform the polls and not only win the Electoral College but the national popular vote.
As expected, Pennsylvania was the tipping-point state. When Trump won it, he had officially won enough Electoral College votes to win the presidency. When Arizona was finally called for him, Trump had won every single one of the 2024 election’s battleground states.
It was an incredible political comeback, one of the greatest in modern history—a bigger victory than I had projected. Just look at this map from the New York Times showing how Trump’s margins increased in counties compared to 2020.
Now, that’s what I call a red wave.
As my paid subscribers know, I projected Trump to win all of the battleground states except for Michigan—which was a tough call.
Here was my final projection:
Sure, there were a lot of signs that Michigan was looking good for Trump, but I was admittedly reluctant to appear too bullish about Trump’s chances, and my sources had suggested to me that there was little reason to have faith in the Michigan GOP’s ground game. I’m glad my source was wrong, even if it meant that my projection wasn’t 100% accurate.
After Joe Biden dropped out, the narrative emerged that Democrats had experienced a surge of enthusiasm. ActBlue had its biggest fundraising day of the cycle, and Kamala Harris began to draw crowds to her rallies. However, in hindsight, that burst of energy seems more like a party scrambling to unite behind someone—anyone—after Biden’s departure than a genuine belief in Kamala’s ability to win.
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I thought early on that Kamala was just a sacrificial lamb, the perfect patsy to put up against a candidate like Trump. Democrats may have rallied around her in the wake of Biden’s exit, but it’s hard to ignore the glaring truth: prior to becoming the nominee, Kamala was the most unpopular vice president in polling history. That’s hardly the profile of someone a major political party would choose if it really thought it could win the White House.
But Kamala wasn’t the reason Democrats lost.
When you look at how Trump swept the battleground states and how the country shifted compared to 2020, one thing is clear: Trump was always going to win this election. It was never going to be close, no matter who the Democrats ran.
No one within the Democratic Party seemed interested in challenging her. Prominent Democrats like Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer, both of whom have ambitions for higher office, were quick to endorse Kamala instead of mounting their own campaigns. Their decision to stand down, even though a Harris victory would have scuttled their 2028 presidential prospects, suggests they also knew the outcome of the election wasn’t in doubt.
It’s clear that many knew Harris was never going to win—even if they weren’t going to admit it openly. Democratic leaders made a practical decision when they selected her, knowing she was a weak candidate who could fight hard but would ultimately lose. They also knew that her candidacy would serve a larger purpose—salvaging some down-ballot races. If getting rid of Joe Biden achieved anything, it helped Democrats win Senate races in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
But Kamala Harris was never going to win this election. Never. Even potential vice presidential candidates like North Carolina’s Gov. Roy Cooper recognized this reality. He was on Harris’s shortlist, but he took himself out of consideration because he wants to run for the U.S. Senate in 2026, and joining a doomed ticket would damage his Senate ambitions in a red state.
In the end, Democrats’ real goal was not winning in 2024—it was simply biding their time and setting the stage for a better shot in 2028. Kamala Harris was a convenient placeholder, a candidate who could fight a losing battle without upsetting the party’s long-term ambitions.