Is California's Gerrymandered Map Next to Go Down?

Virginia’s new gerrymandered map was just declared unconstitutional, and while Democrats are still favored to flip the House in November, this ruling complicates things. Movement in polling and prediction markets shows momentum for the GOP, and the balance of power in the House could come down to just a few races.

Democrats are, of course, livid that the Virginia Supreme Court had the audacity to say that Democrats failed to follow the state Constitution, but their problems may not be over. U.S. Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) thinks that California’s gerrymandered map can also get nuked.

“Virginia’s map just got struck down. Is California next?” Schmitt posted on X. “California’s ‘mapmaker’ drew its new maps to ‘ensure’ that racially gerrymandered ‘VRA seats are bolstered in order to make them most effective.’ That’s illegal under Callais.”

Schmitt is referring to the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent Callais decision, which declared racial gerrymandering unconstitutional.

Here’s where California’s situation gets awkward for Democrats. State law actually requires an independent redistricting commission to draw congressional maps — a process designed specifically to keep politicians out of the mapmaking business. Newsom and state legislative Democrats overrode the commission entirely last year, bringing in their preferred mapmaker to do so.

That decision is now looking like a serious liability.

“California state law requires an ‘independent’ Commission to draw its district maps,” Schmitt said. “But Newsom and state Legislature Dems overrode the Commission last year to gerrymander. That meant hiring a ‘mapmaker’ — Paul Mitchell — to do it. But he drew an illegal racial gerrymander.”

What makes Mitchell’s map particularly hard to defend is that he apparently wasn’t shy about what he was doing. Schmitt points to Mitchell’s own social media posts as evidence, where he publicly boasted about “increase[d] Latino voting power” and touted a plan that would create “one more Latino influence district.” That’s not a neutral map. That’s a documented, race-conscious design — exactly the kind of thing Callais prohibits.

Schmitt tied it all together with a pointed dig at Democrats’ habit of identity-based politics: “Gavin Newsom’s map has the same problem Democrats always have: they cannot stop dividing Americans by race. Callais makes clear that the VRA is not a permission slip for racial sorting. DOJ should act fast.”

This is part of a broader redistricting war playing out in real time ahead of the midterms. If California’s map were to be thrown out, the math gets brutal for Democrats — their redistricting gains nationwide would net them just a single additional House seat overall. What looked like a rough environment for Republicans holding the House could quickly flip into a nightmare for Democrats.

But there’s a catch — and it’s a big one. Early voting in California has already started. So, the same early voting dynamics that helped doom Virginia’s gerrymander map may actually protect California’s map, at least for this cycle. Courts are generally reluctant to scramble election administration mid-process, and with ballots effectively already going out, a legal challenge may not land in time to matter for 2026.

That doesn’t mean a legal challenge shouldn’t be made; it just means that it’s likely too late to matter this year. Something tells me a challenge will happen.