Here's The Math on Hegseth's Confirmation
The Senate has moved a step closer to confirming Pete Hegseth as the next Secretary of Defense, with a 51-49 vote advancing his nomination.
While Hegseth’s confirmation isn’t guaranteed, he appears poised to secure the role The final confirmation vote is expected on Friday, and barring any major surprises, it looks like Hegseth will have the votes needed for the position, but barely.
Most Republicans are on board with Hegseth, however, there are some GOP dissenters. Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, have voiced their intention to oppose his confirmation.
Democrats, meanwhile, have strongly opposed Hegseth’s nomination, labeling him unqualified for the role of Secretary of Defense. They’ve highlighted his past, including allegations of inappropriate conduct and accusations of lackluster managerial experience. While these concerns have been central to their opposition, Republicans have rallied behind Hegseth, citing his leadership potential and his service as a vocal advocate for military readiness.
“I think it’s so hypocritical of senators, especially on the other side of the aisle, to be talking about his qualifications to be the secretary of defense,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) said during Hegseth’s confirmation hearing earlier this month. He pointed out that, much like many others in the Senate, Hegseth had been afforded the privilege of being nominated, despite his past imperfections.
“In general, the U.S. secretary of defense position is filled by a civilian,” he said, cutting through the complicated details and driving home the key point: the role can be filled by anyone who meets the basic criteria, regardless of their specific history. Yet, Democrats seemed determined to weaponize Hegseth’s past, even though their reasons for doing so were far from solid.
Mullin continued his critique by highlighting the glaring double standard in the confirmation process. He reminded the Senate that many of the same senators who now questioned Hegseth’s qualifications had previously supported Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, even though Austin had stepped down from the board of Raytheon before being confirmed—a potential conflict that had gone largely unchallenged.
Mullin’s remarks were a sharp rebuke of the double standards he saw in the Senate, where personal failings were often overlooked if they fit the right narrative. He exposed the dissonance between the high moral standards Democrat senators demanded from across the aisle while turning a blind eye to their own flaws.
“You guys make sure you make a big show and point out the hypocrisy because a man’s made a mistake and you want to sit there and say that he’s not qualified? Give me a joke,” he said, calling out the political theater that so often overshadowed genuine qualifications and personal character.
In the Senate Armed Services Committee, Hegseth’s nomination passed along party lines, with Republicans backing him and Democrats predictably unified in opposition. This has set the stage for the full Senate vote.
True to form, with Hegseth’s confirmation appearing likely, the Democrats made one last-ditch effort to thwart his nomination by revisiting smear tactics similar to those used against Justice Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation hearings.
This week Democrats introduced a new affidavit from Hegseth’s former sister-in-law, Danielle Hegseth, claiming he was abusive to his ex-wife. The affidavit was submitted in response to a request from Senator Jack Reed (D-R.I.) for information on Hegseth’s fitness for the position.
However, Hegseth’s ex-wife, Samantha Deering, denied the accusations, calling them false and stating that there was no abuse in their marriage.
“There was no physical abuse in my marriage,” she told NBC News.
Whether any senators were influenced by the false accusations remains to be seen.
With 53 total Republican senators and Murkowski and Collins voting “no,” we’re at the magic number 51 to confirm—that’s assuming there are no Democratic crossovers—and that’s a safe bet.
That means Hegseth can only afford one more GOP defection, which would put the vote at 50-50 with Vice President JD Vance having to break the tie.
But if everything goes according to plan, Hegseth will be confirmed as the next Secretary of Defense, with a mandate from the GOP and President Trump. The final confirmation vote is expected on Friday and promises to be the first real test of the Senate GOP’s loyalty to Trump.