Does the GOP Have a Turnout Problem?

Does the GOP have a turnout problem? The evidence from recent special elections suggests the answer is yes — but the full picture is more complicated than that. For sure, it looks like something is going wrong for Republicans at the state and local level, and the numbers are hard to ignore. Democrats have outperformed Kamala Harris’ 2024 vote totals by an average of 10.5 points across the 20 state legislative districts that held special elections this year. In the 67 state House and Senate races held last year, Democratic candidates beat Harris’ numbers by an average of 13.9 points.

On January 31, Democrat Taylor Rehmet won a North Texas state Senate seat — a district Trump carried by 17 points just 14 months ago. That’s a 31-point swing. The seat had been in Republican hands for more than 40 years. Then on February 7, Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez won a South Louisiana state House seat by a 24-point margin in a district Trump had won by 13 points in 2024, even while being outspent by Republicans three-to-one. And in a conservative north-central Oklahoma state House district earlier this month, a Republican did win, but by 28 points, down from Trump’s 58-point margin in 2024. That’s a 30-point collapse in a district nobody thought was competitive.

It’s impossible to deny there’s a problem for the GOP. But I think the situation is far more complicated.