Did Gavin Newsom Doom His Presidential Ambitions?
Did Gavin Newsom Doom His Presidential Ambitions?
It’s no secret that Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) has set his sights on the White House. Just a year ago, there was speculation that he could emerge as the savior of the Democratic Party, which wasn’t (and still isn’t) entirely enthusiastic about having Joe Biden as their nominee, and certainly can’t trust Kamala Harris to lead the party to victory.
Last May, Newsom proudly celebrated an impressive state budget surplus of almost $98 billion, as the state consistently operated with a surplus for several years. The media hailed the apparent success of California in operating in the black as proof that progressive policies could lead to prosperity. Moreover, it provided the perfect backdrop for Newsom to launch a presidential campaign should Joe Biden not run for reelection. California’s economy has, for several years now, been recognized as the sixth largest economy in the world, and who better to pass the baton to than the man who successfully ran that economy?
It was all a mirage, of course. Much of the surplus was due to federal COVID relief funds; it was ultimately short-lived. Soon after Newsom secured his reelection, updated estimates revealed a concerning $25 billion deficit for the upcoming fiscal year of 2023-2024.
And now that estimate has been revised again, with California facing a staggering $32 billion deficit, exceeding 10% of the state’s budget. This represents a prime example of fiscal mismanagement, undermining the claims made by the left that so-called progressive policies are fiscally responsible and potentially damaging Newsom’s messaging in a future presidential campaign.
Though loyalty kept him from challenging Joe Biden in a Democrat primary, there are subtle signs that he is actively working behind the scenes to establish a national presence. Last month, he unveiled his intentions to establish an organization known as the “Campaign for Democracy.” This initiative aims to actively oppose Republican leaders in various states by challenging their policies. It doesn’t take a genius to realize he’s laying a foundation for a potential future national campaign. (RELATED: Is Gavin Newsom Secretly Preparing for a Presidential Campaign?)
But, with California’s fiscal house crumbling under Newsom’s leadership, that ideal backdrop for launching a presidential campaign is gone. On top of that, Newsom angered his base for failing to endorse cash payments of up to $1.2 million per person for slavery reparations, most likely because it would bankrupt the state.
Does that mean Newsom is no longer viable as a presidential candidate? Not necessarily. Unless a scenario arises where Joe Biden cannot pursue the presidency in 2024, Newsom’s next opportunity to run would be in 2028. He’ll be two years out of office by that point unless he runs for Congress in 2026. By then, the reparations controversy is unlikely to be a pressing concern, making it possible for him to navigate a Democratic primary successfully. However, defending his gubernatorial record may prove challenging in a general election—especially if his opponent is Gov. Ron DeSantis.