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The Worst Bounce Record Since McGovern!
By Matt Margolis | August 5, 2004
Matthew Dowd has once again provided us with some fantastic insight into this campaign. His latest revelation, “Kerry is the first candidate since George McGovern to receive a negative bounce — and no challenger has ever been elected without opening a large lead over the incumbent after their convention.”
Kerry’s performance in Gallup’s post-convention poll is even worse than George McGovern’s in 1972, making it the worst convention bounce in Gallup’s history of presidential campaign polling.
After you’re done laughing give a little to the Bush campaign…
Topics: John Kerry Watch |
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August 5th, 2004 at 12:36 am
You know, its not that he sounds like Lurch as Rush says, its more like Reverend Jim from Taxi. Now, with the Swift Boat veterans against him - his one and only theme is gone.
http://humaneventsonline.com.edgesuite.net/unfit_video_wmv.html
August 5th, 2004 at 1:17 am
If post-Goldwater campaigns are the entirely of the benchmark then quite alot of our history has been ignored. Well, I’m all for southern-white-boys come-take-all, but really we should be prepared to pretend statistical agnosticism when we can. Ouch, were there too many big words in there?
August 5th, 2004 at 9:08 am
Ken, the current deluge of political polling did not really gear up until around the Vietnam War and can be attributed to the advent of mass media, particularly TV, as well as the increase in telephone ownership and access. So the statistics only go back to that time period. That particular line of reasoning does not invalidate the statistical trend, especially since considering anything prior to the 60’s would not be applicable since the conventions were not televised. However, having said that, this certainly is not a ‘done deal’ by any means, it is merely one more indicator that Kerry’s popularity is more an invention of the media and the irrational ‘I hate Bush for no particular reason!’ frenzy they have whipped up among the unwashed and ill-informed masses. By the way, Bush has the most gender and racially diverse cabinet of any president, including that of the demo-darling Clinton. Incidentally, I am a conservative, southern, white male. Do not assume an accent different from your own makes a person ignorant, but then again that would be par for the course coming from the quasi-intellectual left.
August 5th, 2004 at 9:44 am
Valid, reasonable points. Sorry for the name calling. I’ll try to keep my comments above board in the future. I t is hard though…
August 5th, 2004 at 4:07 pm
There may be another reason why the convention didn’t boost Kerry. Those polls all state that there are very few undecided voters out there. President Bush’s voting bloc is very hard. It looks like the ‘anyone but Bush’ bloc is also solid. Our nation is polarized to an extent unprecedented in modern times. I wonder if it was this way before the Civil War.
tweell
August 5th, 2004 at 4:09 pm
For a guy who doesn’t believe in polls, when a poll comes out favoring Bush it always gets posted here. One poll a few months back gave Bush a five point lead, and it showed up here. Then one poll shows a convention negative bounce and it shows up here, too. All the others show small gains, but you never see those here. Just like you won’t here about Muqtada Al-Sadr (remember him, the guy who Bush backed down to a few months ago) attacking again
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&e=1&u=/ap/20040805/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq
ot this
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=3&u=/ap/20040805/ap_on_el_pr/bush_2
For the third time, Bush is trying to take away overtime pay. Yeah, that’s a guy who really cares about the American worker. Sure, I got a $300 check back in 2001, but I make more than that every pay period in overtime. Bush can keep his tax cuts and keep his hands off my overtime.
August 5th, 2004 at 5:06 pm
According to the polls, Kerry is winning the electoral votes 307 to 231. That’s a pretty nice lead!
August 6th, 2004 at 6:37 pm
Depends on the poll you look at and they all have around a +-4 margin of error. Which basically still puts this more or less dead even. And that is not a nice lead in any case coming out of your own convention. That basically is just one or two states that are too close for anyone to call.
August 9th, 2004 at 2:52 pm
well, if bush wins all the states that are currently “barely bush,” and kerry loses most of the “barely kerry” states, he’ll still have above the 270 he needs to win. so, i still think it’s a “nice lead.”
most polls say the same thing about electoral votes. there’s just a difference in the actual votes…even that difference is not so great among most polls.